This article considers water security in the context of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (the Dam). It was in the hope of protecting Lake Turkana against such threats that it was listed as a World Heritage Site. The official narrative is that Ethiopia can uproot poverty and bring about a definitive end to social and economic underdevelopment by means of the construction of a series of mega-dams combined with the development of the national energy infrastructure. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. Although Egypt has persistently argued that the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan is the legal framework for the allocation of the waters of the Nile, Ethiopia and other upstream riparian states reject that argument. GIGA Focus No. Search for jobs related to Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. Ethiopia seems to have the legal upper hand in this dispute. These hydraulic mega-projects underscore the ambitious local and regional political aims of the Ethiopian ruling elites. In: Yihdego, Z. et al. According to some estimates, the Ethiopian government had to arrange for the resettlement of 1.5 million people in the four regions of Gambela, Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz. Many historical grievances and distrust remain on the Ethiopian side regarding Egypt (Gebreluel, 2014), with some Ethiopian journalists assessing the 'Declaration of Principles' as being more in favour of Egypt than Ethiopia (Zegabi East Africa News, 2015). You can revoke your consent to the site operator at any time by unsubscribing from the newsletter. 17th round of GERD tripartite talks hits wall in Cairo. However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. Whittington, D. et al. The 10-year filling time of GERD will likely contribute to fastened salinisation in Egypt. The IPoE report recommended two studies to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of GERD and was interpreted by both the Egyptian and the Ethiopian government as a vindication of their respective positions. A major reason the GERD is so controversial today is that it has not been subjected to thorough safety and impact studies, which could pose a grave threat to downriver nations. But this did not rule out eruptions of tension, not just between local communities and the central government, but also between Ethiopia and its neighbours. The strategy and its surrounding narrative have attracted large influxes of foreign investment in the Ethiopian agrarian sector, with multi-million dollar leases of agricultural land to foreigners generally linked to irrigation projects planned in tandem with the construction of the dam. The Chinese donors who have agreed to fund it have performed no independent social or environmental impact reviews. The former was initially funded by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, but these later withdrew for legal and other reasons. According to this narrative, the Blue Nile, or Abay in Amharic, is a purely Ethiopian river. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Nevertheless, it is important to take stock of the human costs, social problems, and lasting environmental impacts of this strategy which have already drawn considerable criticism and concern. This exception was implemented to mitigate the risk of decolonisation leading to boundary wars. This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. The writer is a professor of political science at the UAEs Zayed and Cairo universities, *A version of this article appears in print in the 9 July, 2020 edition ofAl-Ahram Weekly, Spain La Liga results & fixtures (24th matchday). Zegabi East Africa News (2015). The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. An Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia, on February 19, 2022. Egypt's 100 million people rely on the Nile for 90% of the country's water needs. Because Ethiopia has been so cavalier with regard to the technical aspects of its dams, portions of them have also caved in soon after they began operation. As a consequence, Ethiopia has not been able to make significant use of the rivers waters. Perhaps even more consequential is the fact that this agreement granted Egypt veto power over future Nile River projects. It imports about half its food products and recycles about 25 bcm of water annually. Egypt wants control and guarantees for its share of Nile waters. It concludes that Ethiopias legal position is far stronger and that a negotiated agreement in its favour is the most likely outcome of the dispute. In fact, the Dam arguably smooths out the flow and mitigates the risk of both drought and floods. To date, no significant harm has been caused to Egypt or Sudan as a result of the ongoing construction of the GERD. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. The $4 billion hydroelectric dam . We shall begin with the former. Here, for the first time, Egypt recognised Ethiopias right to use the Nile for development purposes. The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. However, it also makes useful concessions to Egypt which it may wish to press. The above-mentioned Gilgel Gibe III Dam stood out as the worlds most controversial dam until the GERD. Article 7 provides that watercourse states must take all appropriate measures to prevent significant harm to other watercourse States and that, where harm does occur, there shall be consultations to discuss the question of compensation. Finally, Article 8 requires that watercourse states cooperate on the basis of sovereign equality, territorial integrity, mutual benefit and good faith.. The toll on the local communities affected by the dams has been enormous. Practically from the outset, the World Bank and international donors withdrew funding due to a lack of transparency, driven home when it was learned that the construction had begun without a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency in Ethiopia. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. Despite the fact that newly independent Sudan in the late 1950s was literally forced by a dominant Egypt into a highly asymmetrical water-sharing arrangement, Sudan has rarely challenged this arrangement. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. Finally, Ethiopia could make a strong case that the operation of the Dam is in alignment with the core principles of international water law, namely equitable utilisation and no significant harm. These are found in Articles 5 and 7 of the Water Courses Convention respectively and, despite the scepticism outlined above, arguably form part of customary international law. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. Egypts original goal was to have the project purely and simply cancelled. Article 5 requires that watercourse states utilise an international watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner and creates the duty to cooperate in the protection and development of the watercourse. When it is completed, with its concrete volume of 10.2 million m3, GERD will feature the largest dam in Africa. First came the 1999 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the dam. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours Ethiopia's strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. By Ambassador Gurjit Singh*. In general, the Ethiopian development philosophy rests on two pillars: mega-dams and mega-agricultural projects. As a result, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has recognised water security as a possible threat to international peace. Misplaced Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Update. [18] The current filling which is ongoing since early July 2021 has presented no issues as well. Crucially, however, neither Egypt nor Ethiopia are parties to the Watercourses Convention and so they are not bound by its terms. The current global energy crisis may help in this regard in the sense that Egyptians may find the allure of discounted hydroelectric energy stronger than ever before. Test. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Nile's water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. For example, in 2017, the UNSC highlighted the security risks of water stress in the Lake Chad Basin Region, affecting Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, based on a combination of water scarcity, drought, desertification and land degradation. . Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam, believes as much. Link, P.M. et al. While the water will return to its normal state before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be permanent. The establishment of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, up 145 and a storage capacity of 74 . Second, regarding the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty, although Ethiopia was a party and although that instrument does deal with the flow of water on the Nile, its terms are strictly limited. Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. If Egyptian authorities refuse to abandon these anachronistic treatieswhich have created untenable water-use rights that benefit only itself and Sudanall parties will remain at an impasse. The results indicated that the negative impacts on Egyptian water resources are dominant. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. This is on the basis of the principles of State succession as outlined in the Vienna Convention on the Succession of States (VCSS). As a hydroelectric project, the dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Afraid that a drought might appear during the filling period, Egypt wants the filling to take place over a much longer period. Elliot Winter is a lecturer (assistant professor) in international law at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Such a mitigation program can make it much easier for Egyptian and Sudanese authorities to cooperate with Ethiopia and the other riparians in creating and adopting an agreement for management of the Nile. One senior advisor to former Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi alluded to it when he said that Ethiopia will supply the electricity, Sudan the food, and Egypt the money. To which we might add, and South Sudan will supply the oil.. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is estimated to cost close to 5 billion US dollars, about 7% of the 2016 Ethiopian gross national product. The instrument was a success in terms of cooling tensions between the states which seemed increasingly likely to come to blows. Hence, it is hard to see how Egypt could make a compelling argument that it has been harmed by the Dam. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours. In the imperialist age, Ethiopian emperors threatened to alter the course of the Nile and stop its flow to Egypt. First, Ethiopia could highlight that it was not a party to either the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty or the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty. Learn. It also codified the principles of equitable and reasonable utilisation and no significant harm (essentially importing from the Watercourses Convention). The Government of Egypt, a country which relies heavily on the waters of the Nile, has demanded that Ethiopia cease construction on the dam as a preconditions to negotiations, sought regional support for its position, and some political leaders have discussed methods to sabotage it. Political instability in Egypt played an important role as the announcement of the project coincided with the resignation of President Mubarak during the Arab Spring. Given these considerations, it seems that Ethiopia has all but won the dispute. According to Article 16, former colonies do not inherit the treaty obligations of their former colonial rulers and instead receive a clean slate. However, Egypt could argue that the territorial treaty exception, under Articles 11 and 12, applies whereby colonial treaty provisions concerning boundaries must survive the impact of succession and bind successor states. It's very unpredictable and it can be very dangerous," says Pottinger. While such dams also come with long-term benefits to local populations, the chief beneficiary will always be the state, which reaps profits from the sale of surplus electricity. The GERD has become a new reality challenging the traditional dynamics in the Nile River Basin. Mainly, for the downstream countries, the. Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. Kevin Harts first Egypt show cancelled 'due to local logistical issues', Match facts: Sudans Al-Hilal v Egypts Ahly (CAF Champions League), Match facts: Egypts Ahly v Cameroons Coton Sport (CAF Champions League), Egyptian Premier League results & scorers (20th matchday), Spain La Liga results & scorers (21st matchday), 13 Egyptian women on Forbes Middle East 100 Most Powerful businesswomen 2023, Egyptian Premier League results & fixtures (18th matchday), English Premier League results & scorers (23rd matchday), Prioritising the best solutions for sustainable development, A new beginning for education and beyond, Prioritizing the UN's Global Development Agenda, US-Africa Leaders Summit: Between expectations and realities. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) constitutes a real crisis for the Egyptian regime, where Ethiopia several times blamed Egypt for the failure of negotiations conducted between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia on the dam. Although the immediate issue at stakesecuring a technical agreement on the filling of the GERDs reservoiris among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the broader and longer-term goal should be for all 11 statesincluding Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Eritrea, and South Sudanto agree on a legal regime for the management of this important watercourse. The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. grand ethiopian renaissance dam. Maguid, M.A. Turning then to Ethiopia. On March 4, 1834, the town of York in the British colony of Canada was incorporated as the City of Toronto. when did construction of the dam begin? Some have mythified it and claim it is the Gihon River of the Biblical Book of Genesis that encircles the entire land of Cush, thereby adding a religious dimension to the politicisation. On March 4, 1982, Bertha Wilson became the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada. Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. Egypt accuses. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation. The 1902 Treaty did not preclude Ethiopia from undertaking works that might reduce, but not arrest, the flow of waters. However, another trend stresses the need to approach the question from a broader and more holistic perspective. The multi-services provided by the hydropower development and its technical advantages could be driving forces for local, regional and national development, and a catalyst for sustainable development. Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. (2012). With regard to the mega-dams, the Gilgel Gibe III Dam and the GERD speak volumes on the substance of Zenawis political ideology. 4. But with a generation capacity of 6.45GW, the Ethiopian government quoted the project as vital to the country's economic growth. Perhaps the most obvious argument that Ethiopia may want to make is a rebuttal to Egypts continued reliance on the Nile Water Treaties. If the relevant parties can agree to these goals, the agreement, in the end, will need to include technical language that ensures equitable sharing of the Nile. The various warnings by experts about the dangers of the new Ethiopian dam have begun to cause panic among Egyptians, to the point of belief that the Aswan Dam will collapse once the Renaissance is completed. Ethiopias interests in developing its water resources are driven by its growing population and high demand for socio-economic development (Gebreluel, 2014). International rights organisations have reported that many cases of displacement were not voluntary and that entire communities were driven from their villages. A series of talks since then have largely failed to produce a consensus among the concerned countries, with tensions rising again after Ethiopia announced its intention to begin filling the dam in July 2020. Ethiopia, whose highlands supply more than 85 percent of the water that flows into the Nile River, has long argued that it has the right to utilize its natural resources to address widespread poverty and improve the living standards of its people. Concern has focused in particular on Lake Turkana, which derives 90 per cent of its water from the Omo River on which the Gilgel Gibe III Dam was built. A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on December 26, 2019. Faced with the anachronistic Nile Waters Treaties on the one hand and the absence of a suitable replacement on the other, discussions about the Dam have fallen into something of a stalemate. Ethiopia announced in April 2011 that it intends to build four large dams on the Nile, including one of the largest in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (formerly known as Project X or the Grand Millennium Dam).This huge dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia, near the Sudan border, and create a reservoir that is nearly twice as large as Lake Tana . Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an existential threat, as it fears the dam will negatively impact the countrys water supplies. per year, that would constitute a drought, to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD, 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement. to hydrate farmland), it would effectively be taken from downstream states like Egypt. Ethiopia also seems to have the political upper hand given that the Dam is effectively a fait accompli and given that Egypts erstwhile downstream ally, Sudan, switched sides in the dispute leaving the Egyptians diplomatically isolated. In the absence of the application of the Watercourses Convention, various other legal arrangements and political declarations must be considered to gain an understanding of the regulation of the Dam and the Nile River more generally. Water Policy, 16(4), 595-608. Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. Despite the controversy and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam's effect on Egypt and Sudan, it appears that the Ethiopian government will continue to move forward with filling the dam. Downstream countries Egypt and Sudan have expressed concerns over the impacts of the dam on their water supply. Still, if the exception was somehow activated, it would mean that Egypt remains entitled to 66% of the Nile River waters and that this figure should be used as the baseline for any future negotiations. The significance of Gulf involvement was highlighted by the . In contrast, if water from the Dam were to be used for irrigation purposes by Ethiopia (i.e. This is because it is traditionally understood to refer to waterways that form intrinsic parts of international boundaries. Before discussing the benefits, the article will brief the general technical overview of the GERDP. Recently, the tensions among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile have escalated, particularly after Ethiopia announced that it had started filling the GERDs reservoir, an action contrary to Egypts mandate that the dam not be filled without a legally binding agreement over the equitable allocation of the Niles waters. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6,450 MW hydropower project nearing completion on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, located about 30 km upstream of the border with Sudan. It provides clear benefits to all three riparian, such as flood control, reduced flood damages and sediment control. Such an understanding and appreciation of Egypts water vulnerability would help the riparians develop a water management protocol that can significantly enhance equitable and reasonable use while minimizing significant harm to downstream riparians. Match. This antipathy is not new, with Munzinger noting even in the nineteenth century that Ethiopia is a danger for Egypt [which] must either take over Ethiopia and Islamize it or, retain it in anarchy and misery. Still, the Dam brings the old enmity into sharp focus. That seems unlikely given that the DoP concerns the Dam alone and was agreed only between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan; whereas the Nile Waters Treaties concern the whole Nile Basin and involve many more states. Neither the Egyptian nor the Ethiopian governments received positive domestic feedback on their agreement. In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). Egypt, Ethiopia to form joint committee on Renaissance Dam. Even without taking the dam into account, the largely desert country is short of water. Ethiopia has the basins most suitable locations for hydropower production, and its damming of the Blue Nile would significantly increase Sudan's potential for irrigated agriculture. The Ethiopian government has always availed itself of its power to transfer local populations off land it decides to declare a public resource. Although conflict over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River has existed for many years, the dispute, especially that between Egypt and Ethiopia, significantly escalated when the latter commenced construction of the dam on the Blue Nile in 2011. The treaties also purported to give Egypt veto power over upstream projects. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. The most important of these treaties is the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (the Watercourses Convention). Indeed, Principle II notes that the purpose of the [Dam] is for power generation and regional integration through generation of sustainable and reliable clean energy supply. This is crucial given that hydroelectricity generation simply involves holding water back behind a dam for a period of time, and then releasing it again in a managed manner so that the electric turbines can spin consistently. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. But controversy has surrounded the project ever since it was announced in 2011 especially concerning its . Egypt and Ethiopia have once again locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. Subsequent impact studies were performed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, and in the light of the results, these banks cancelled their funding for Gibe III. This agreement could pave the way for a more detailed cooperation framework, and represents a major step toward dispute resolution. While this means new opportunities to develop extended irrigation-based agriculture for the Sudanese, it represents also a new threat for Egypts current Nile water utilisation (Whittington et al., 2014). Over the years, Egypt has used its extensive diplomatic connections and the colonial-era 1929 and 1959 agreements to successfully prevent the construction of any major infrastructure projects on the tributaries of the Nile. February 14, 2022 JPEG Ultimately, however, Egypt did not sign the CFA (nor did Sudan) hence it does not resolve the dispute. The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. It will take between eight and ten years to fill the new dam. Even in 2023, there are only 46 state parties, with key actors such as the US, Canada and Brazil remaining outside the Conventions regime. An unsubscribe function is also at the bottom of every newsletter. Already, on June 19, 2020, Egyptian authorities called upon the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene after tripartite talks had failed to secure an agreement on the filling schedule for the GERD.