Strategic. It will always have an eye on the need to protect itself against attack from the sea, but there's much more to China's vulnerability than potential invasion or bombardment. By the end of the 1970s, communist insurgencies outside Indochina had been effectively suppressed. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. 1. That should, of course, remain the goal, but Washington must recognize that Thailand is in the midst of a decade-long political crisis, which is unlikely to be resolved until after King Bhumibols passing and the royal succession is completed. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. Certainly, the ongoing reform process and the opening of relations with the United States amount to a strategic setback for Chinas position in the region. These factors combined give a strategic importance to the South China Sea that has led to numerous states Brunei, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam each pressing their own claims to . China sought access to natural resources, to political influence and to a strategic maritime position in the Bay of Bengal. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. When China moved a massive oilrig, theHaiyang Shiyou 981, into Vietnams exclusive economic zone in 2014, Vietnam had limited options to respond, at either the low end or the high. The most important and least tangible stake in the South China Sea concerns the preservation (or not) of a regional rules-based order supported by U.S. power. Today's world is the US-led where China is a rising giant economically and politically. In May, Australia and Singapore agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In the defense realm, the CSP paves the way for more bilateral military exercises, greater Singaporean access to Australian training facilities, enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements and expanded people-to-people exchanges. The United States needs to maintain a difficult balancing act, supporting the democratic aspirations of the Thai people while remaining a security and economic partner of choice for the elites and armed forces. Most of China's global trade is seaborne. These same sea-lanes are a vital military artery as the U.S. While consistency in U.S. messaging and policy execution is important, it should be balanced by carefully calculated unpredictability in operations and tactics to prevent Beijing from becoming overly confident in its ability to anticipate U.S. reactions. It is unlikely that any states in the region possess the wealth and power to oppose this, although there is always a realistic possibility that they may receive backing from the USA if it is in their interests. Hanoi and Canberra have launched a number of security dialogues and are expanding personnel exchanges, ship visits and officer training. Russian long-range aviation, despite performing frequent combat missions against Ukraine, is also conducting Pacific patrols, sometimes together with Chinese H-6K strategic bombers (Nikkei Asia, November 30). If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. Beijings moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the regionone in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. and Amy Searight. Other claimant states welcome U.S. involvement precisely because Washington does not favor one claimants territorial ambitions over those of the others. The global focus of economic power has traditionally been centred over the west with the UK and the USA as the key contributors; however in recent years, this has shifted east (see Figure 1), with the main reason for this being rapid urbanization in developing countries, in particular China. U.S. military advantage is of limited utility in this area and Washington has struggled to convince local partners to join in freedom of navigation operations. Seventh Fleet patrolled the regions seaways, including the South China Sea, unchallenged including agreed access to ports throughout much of the region. Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). The strategic signal of an Indian presence in the South China Sea Harsh V. Pant India has wider stakes in South China Sea as nearly 55% of India's trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through these waters. This button displays the currently selected search type. In each of these arenas, a successful Chinese effort to seize control of the South China Sea will have a profound impact and each is worth elaboration. South China Sea is a strategic sea lane is significance for connectivity, navigation, trade and resources is a global hotspot as a potential flashpoint. India has proactively engaged in the South China Sea (SCS), notably via boosting its naval presence and forging ties with Vietnam despite China's aggression. However, there were a number of reasons to conclude that the line was no cartographic anomaly; it was an official indication of Beijings contention that the sovereign territory of China included the South China Sea. In practice, Thailand may be neutral in the regions great power fissures into the next decade. Almost all the East Asian countries are dependent on this sea. A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior. The lifting of the arms embargo also opens the door to other forms of U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation. These women are creating climate solutions, One year later: Democracy stands in Ukraine. The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the South China Sea. Countries across the region prioritized economic growth and modernization. The islands are important, however, for strategic and political reasons. The region also is the subject of more than a dozen overlapping and interconnected disputes over who is in charge of the various islands, rocks, shoals and reefs scattered throughout the South China Sea waters. That included nearly 40 percent of Chinas total trade and 90 percent of petroleum imports by China, Japan, and South Korea and nearly 6 percent of total U.S. trade. In particular Chinas maritime law enforcement in the disputed islands and waters has disrupted regional stability; causing tensions between Vietnam after a clash between Chinese patrol boats and Vietnamese oil exploration vessels. Thailand, of course, has been an important security partner for the United States. April 26, 2016 There is widespread interest in the rising tensions over the waters east of China. Instead, perceptions of weakness may encourage leaders in Beijing to embrace more assertive behavior. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea. Australia, for its part, has vocally supported U.S. freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea and may have quietly conducted its own in recent months. China is already providing indications of how it might act when it controls the South China Sea. This has continued in to the present day. China, however, must now balance its continental concerns, which remain complex, against its new dependence on the maritime domain. Navy P-8s are now regularly deploying to Singapore and, although without regular access, they have conducted patrols from Malaysia as well. Indeed, when push came to shove, China would force its bilateral partners to choose between economic prosperity on the one hand and security and even sovereignty on the other. It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. More than half of the world's fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. The South China Sea is one such essential waterway, made more important by the value of the sea's fisheries and subsea resources such as natural gas. Burma, however, is a potential bright spot for the U.S. position in continental Southeast Asia. The area marked with a blue line is based on the UNCLOS 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) relating to each countrys claims and the islands marked in green are the ones over which sovereignty is disputed. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), it carries one-third of global shipping, carrying trillions of dollars in trade, making it a significant geopolitical water body. See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details. The USSJohn C. Stennistied up there for a few days in April. In December, another joint China-Russia naval exercise was held in the East China Sea (China Military Online, December 21, 2022). In particular, Chinas growing assertiveness over sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea could be assessed as a serious challenge to the status quo in the region. - Interview with Ana Krstinovska, Russia's Growing Influence in the Middle East: an interview with Alexander Hoffmann, Serbia's Uneasy Balance Between Moscow and the EU: an interview with Suzana Grubjesic, Gulf States' Economic Momentum: an interview with Omar Al-Ubaydli, Prospects for Turkey-EU Relations Amid Tensions, Need to Cooperate and Lack of Trust: an interview with Nilgn Arsan Eralp, Germany's Shifting Stance in the Greek-Turkish Dispute: an interview with Ioannis P. Sotiropoulos, Bulgaria's Economic Perspectives amid Political Uncertainty and Challenges, Saudi Arabia's Reforms, Relations with the United States, and Choice of New Allies: an interview with David H. 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But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. Strategic Landscape of the South China Sea: While geopolitics indicates geographical relations with politics, there is another importance which is strategic. Talks are focused on articles that are relevant to disaster relief, but the agreements eventual parameters could expand as the U.S.-Vietnam security relationship matures. Since the mid-1990s, China has pursued a strategy . With a new Southeast Asian strategic alignment taking shape as described, geography makes Indonesia and Malaysiaespecially due to its Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneothe regions key swing states. Such pressure should focus on concrete, near-term objectives, such as putting a stop to reeducation of regime critics. In 2012, Vietnam and the Philippines sought to consolidate their partnership and alliance with the US in order to enhance their strategic position over SCS disputes. More than half of the worlds fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. Chinas island outposts will increase this advantage as Chinese aircraft, ships, and paramilitary vessels will be able to rest and resupply in the southern portion of the South China Sea. Last year, the construction projects covered 72 acres. American littoral combat ships are rotating through Singapore, at the South China Seas western extremis, and the city-state has also quietly built the only Asian port outside of Yokohama at which an American aircraft carrier can dock. The credibility of U.S. security support for allies and partners will be shredded. Back in 2006, Japan became only the second country (after Russia) to establish a strategic partnership with Vietnam. China's strategic reach into the South China Sea has obvious and profound implications for three sets of international actors: (1) the littoral Southeast Asian states (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines); (2) major maritime countries heavily dependent on the sea lanes through the South China Sea (including Japan, Korea, and WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc said the disputed South China Sea has a strategic significance for the international community and any "unlawful" restriction on the freedom of the seas will destabilise peace in the Asia-Pacific region. In the contemporary era, Taiwan remains geographically at the intersection of most of East Asia's danger points. The Obama administrations decision to lift the decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam is instrumental here. The outcome of that contest will profoundly influence, if not shape, the 21st century world. Walter Lohman hasdescribedCobra Gold as an achievement that has proved useful for military missions, such as joint patrols of vital sea lanes, and noncombat missions, such as disaster relief following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Burma.. The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? The United States has formally objected to Chinas South China Sea maritime claims. The end of the Cold War found East Asia and the Western Pacific strategically quiescent. For example, targeted sanctions on Chinese companies involved in destabilizing activities could be considered. Washington, DC 20036. In 1974, Chinese gunboats attacked and defeated a small South Vietnamese military outpost in the Paracels an archipelago of reefs, atolls, and islets in the South China Sea. Sun Tzu Explains China's Shaping Operations in the South China Sea. This article aims to highlight security dynamics of the US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific associated with the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea through the prism of Balance of Threat Th. economic importance associated with the ocean is tremendous and manifold. This order embodies certain foundational political principles respect for international law, preservation of the real sovereign independence of regional states, a refusal to legitimate unilateral territorial expansion, and the unconditional acceptance of the sea-lanes as a global commons. In addition to conventional concerns about territorial defense, the South China Sea is also important for China because of its nationalist claims to all of the tiny land . Several countries in the area, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, make overlapping sovereignty claims over the islands and maritime rights in the SCS. The Balloon Incident and Evolution of Espionage. More than 50% of world trade passes. Post-Mao China, with the emergence of Deng Xiaoping as paramount leader, became a major constructive presence dedicated to economic development fueled by opening the Middle Kingdom to the region and the world. The security assurances provided by the U.S. military presence coupled with the advent of regional institutions, notably ASEAN and the Asian Development Bank, nurtured that growth. In 1995, the Philippines discovered that China had occupied and militarized an atoll (Mischief Reef) well within the Philippines EEZ and within maritime territory claimed by Manila. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). When it comes to trade, investment and infrastructure development, China should not be the only game in town. That line was given little credence or attention in the U.S. or in Asia over the first five decades of the PRCs history. This article examines Chinas behaviour in the South China Sea disputes through the lens of its strategy for managing its claims. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken more assertive policies that have greatly improved Beijings position in the South China Sea. Over the longer term, American defense contractors may have their sights set on sales of fighter aircraft and attack helicopters. It threatens the sovereignty of many nations and endangers the prosperity of the world. China tries to control the waters by using fishing vessels that are part of the Chinese maritime militia, coast guard ships, and naval vessels to harass other countries boats and deny access to this key area. US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning, The West is misreading Chinas Party Congress at the peril of world stability, Can Foreign Investors still have Good Reasons to be Optimistic about China? The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the worlds busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. But as it does so, it acts as midwife to a very real strategic realignment in Southeast Asia, one which promises to benefit the United States and its partners. China has seized the initiative in the South China Sea, however, and the United States needs to revamp its strategy to reverse current trends and escape the trap of reactive and ineffectual policymaking. Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. f) . By contrast, China views. Thanks to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), American power projection capabilities will be regularly present in the Philippines for the first time since the early 1990s. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. To this end, the new administration should perform an early, top-down, and thorough strategic review to enable greater consistency and effectiveness in U.S. South China Sea policy. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. With a maturing coast guard, navy and air force, Vietnam will become an increasingly prickly foe. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea (With reference to the geopolitical, economic, and military aspects) South China Sea is known as one of the most significant and dangerous cluster of Islands in the contemporary world. In October 2020, Hong Kong's air traffic control denied a Taiwanese flight access to Pratas Island, a Taiwan-occupied feature in the South China Sea. Expanding U.S. access to Vietnamese facilities as described above could eventually render access to Thai facilities somewhat redundant, further weakening the institutional support for the alliance in the United States. Thats why the United States has urged countries to resolve maritime claim disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law. However, Brunei's insistence that specific issues in the maritime region should be . As one of the busiest trade routes in the world and home to a wealth of marine and mineral resources, the South China Sea holds great economic and geostrategic importance. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. It is one in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north; the United States and its partners dominate the eastern and western edges of the sea; and the bulk of continental Southeast Asian states (Thailand, Cambodia and Laos) are either neutral or aligned more closely with China. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. During the George W. Bush administration, U.S. forces in the Philippines were focused primarily on aiding the Philippine military in its counterterror fight. The United States sent a carrier battle group there as well. MANILA - Major powers are wading deeper into the South China Sea in a series of moves that promise to rile China while answering US calls for like-minded nations to counter jointly Beijing's rising assertiveness in the crucial and contested maritime area. India and Vietnam, while acknowledging the strategic importance of the SCS and their volatile position when it comes to China's rising power, are edging closer toward each other. Aung San Suu Kyi has no interest in antagonizing Chinawhich shares a border with Burma and is a major source of foreign investmentbut nor can she afford to alienate the United States or India. In 2012, then Chinese president Hu Jintao voiced his desire to make China a powerful maritime nation. Figure 4 shows the overlapping sovereignty claims in the SCS, with Chinas claims according to the 9 dash line doctrine in red. . The South China Sea is a core interest of both Vietnam and China. The risk to Chinese power projection lies predominantly with US interests. What is the Strategic Importance of the South China Sea?
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